Thank you!

Sounds like the centrists are starting to lose their nerve once their constituents start suffering. That is one of my theories of how the shut down ends.

I don’t see any news to corroborate that claim. Link?

As a Trump-hating American working in defense, I always tried to tell people that our economic dominance was enforced with the barrel of a gun. Friends working in international relations would also reference books like “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” that also pointed to usage of the CIA and international lending terms to enrich ourselves at the expanse of the 3rd world, especially Latin America. I completely agree that a capricious, bi-polar US is an untenable world leader.

But in general, it’s very hard to get most Americans to care about our relationships and interactions with the rest of the world, much less acknowledge the ways we are dependent on it. There is some US-centric vanity involved, as well as some stubborn ignorance due to never interacting with the rest of the world at all. But I think in part it’s also due to the hyper competitive nature of simply trying to live in the US, such that there is no brainspace for anything not directly affecting you. Stressors include corporate expectations that everyone should live to work, so many people a few paychecks away from losing their homes and lifestyle with no social safety net, the struggle to afford to live in areas with good schools for your kids, etc etc. In some ways, I’m hopeful that losing global pre-eminence could make life easier for us, especially if it brings about government reform (I don’t mean the MAGA version of this, obviously).

China, the obvious successor to American influence, assuming a more commanding role on the world stage is a mixed bag. On one hand, they certainly prize stability above almost everything, and an authoritarian state run by technocrats indeed seems more effective at addressing climate change than a Corporatocracy that profits from destroying the planet. On the other, there’s not even acknowledgement of unethical practices (e.g.: labor conditions in Chinese companies in DRC, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) when there is no free press. As the US spread it’s influence and democracy after WWII, I kind of worry that the entire world may be forced to get in line with the CCP.

I think it’s more that a huge chunk of the population have externally defined morality and thus are very malleable. Many many people do not enjoy the hard work of figuring out their own self-consistent views of right and wrong. So they let their culture define it for them, which the people in charge are more than happy to do. So when the prevailing culture told them it was wrong to be racist against black Americans, they believed it. And now that the culture they stew in tells them (e.g.) black Americans are lazy moochers, they believe that.

Look, as an American, all I’m asking for is a little extrajudicial redition of Musk and Thiel by South Africa. If we could just get rid of some of the malevolent billionaires that have made the pilgrimage to the land of greed, we might stand a chance of holding on to some of our civil liberties.

Don’t you worry. Civil War is still on the horizon. Gotta see how 2026 goes.

TSA and Customs both scan your face instead of your ID/ passport now for adults. It seems like the government has confidence in it?

As a parent: happiness is about expectations. The exhuberance of youth can carry them as long as we aren’t preparing them for the halcyon, easy days of the 1990s. Life will be hard, it always has been, but there can still be fun and rewarding experiences. They need to know resilience, independence, and be quick on their feet both mentally and physically.

There are many Great Filters, but this one is mine (ours).

I’m not a Luddite in general, but as for AI I will probably only use it as necessary in the workplace. So far the main LLM AI I have gotten any use out of is Google’s Gemini. It lists the citations of its facts when I ask it physics questions, and it seems like there is some kind of filter on the quality of the sources than can be cited. Mostly it cities professional publications, Wikipedia, etc.

I don’t think Google is currently winning the AI arms race (not do i think they have stood by their initial mantra of ‘Don’t be evil’), but it seems like that should be the gold standard. And Google/Alphabet was also the company responsible for Alpha Fold, IMO the most impressive application of learning algorithms to date.

We can’t hold any of them accountable without remaking the Supreme Court.