Summary
Putin’s actions after Trump’s election, including a delayed congratulations and a denial of a phone call, suggest a lack of respect for Trump’s personal relationship with him.
Russia’s intelligence chief’s statement that Trump owes them favors for their support in his election, along with hints that he is expected to “pay back” certain obligations, amounts to a bold threat of blackmail.
Trump’s foreign policy, which favors a realignment with Russia, may be challenged by Putin’s actions and the revelation of Russian interference in the election.
Seriously great question at this point. In 2016 it was commonly accepted knowledge that if Putin released a video of Trump getting pissed on by a woman in a Moscow hotel, that would be the end of his political career.
Since then, he’s been found to be a rapist in court, has attempted to overthrow the government, and has been found guilty of about 3 dozen felonies with more charges pending - which doesn’t matter any way since Trump’s judges have granted him legal immunity to anything he wants to do. And he was just convincingly reelected with his party winning both the House and Senate.
At the point, Putin could put out a video of him personally pegging Trump, and it would make no difference.
There are photos of him hanging with Epstein.
Ghislaine Maxwell said in court that he frequented Epstein’s Manhattan mansion, where she would introduce him to her friends and acquaintances.
If there was anything to that, and the KGB had some media to support that fact. Certainly, some decent part of his base is unshakable, but not the whole base. It would have to be some pretty gross crap, but I don’t think it’s anywhere near impossible.
He is not going to run for president again ever in a free and fair election in accordance with the US constitution; that would require changing the constitution in ways that the Republicans don’t have the numbers for, or at least interpreting the existing constitution in a way that is so contorted I don’t think even the most conservative supreme court judges could support it.
So in other words, he does not need anything from the American public anymore. He has no reason to care if part of his base opens their eyes to what he really is (at least, as long as at least 1/12th of the public will vote not to convict on any jury - but he can also self-pardon for anything except impeachment).
I therefore don’t think the kompromat theory holds much water today.
More likely, the Russians calculate that this is an opportunity to sow division in the US - they’d hope for a civil war as the best case. Supporting Trump, as a divisive president, was a start, but they wouldn’t want too many people happy with Trump either, so they want to make the haters hate him even more than is rational, and the sycophants continue to love him more.
Of course, the risk for them is that they make Trump want to support Ukraine to a greater extent than the US currently is, instead of the opposite. They probably calculate he is incompetent and nothing much will change for them either way. Trump is certainly installing yes-men who will be loyal to him but likely not the most competent leaders; this is an effective way to disrupt a government, but it is likely that a declining narcissist who has structured things to remove all dissent will not be at all effective in achieving outcomes that require complex strategy and coordinated execution. So I think they probably consider this risk to be acceptable.
I dunno. The human part of me wants to believe that there would be something that would be to much for his base to stomach. But the pessimist in me that’s still processing last week’s election makes me think there could be a video of Trump and Epstein raping a 13 year old and his base wouldn’t give a shit.