| Party | Seats | Change | Percentage | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 190 | +37 | 44.2% | 88.1% | 11.6% |
| Conservative | 120 | -1 | 38.5% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Bloc | 26 | -7 | 6.2% | N/A | N/A |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | -1 | 1.5% | N/A | N/A |
| People’s | 0 | N/A | 2.5% | N/A | N/A |
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/canada#voter-intention
I mean, I’m probably voting Liberal (the NDP have had a strong showing in my riding in the past, so I’m not entirely decided), but I kind of believe this.
Carney is obviously the least comfortable out of the main candidates in speaking in French. I don’t believe the cost is a real factor. Maybe “afraid” isn’t the right word, but it does seem to be strategic in a way that avoids potential negative exposure for him. I have mixed feelings about it.