China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.
China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
For the past three decades, China has been on the upswing of a supercycle that saw an almost uninterrupted expansion of the country’s capacity to manufacture, appetite to consume, and ability to project power across the world economy.
Chu — who has been called the “rock star” of Chinese debt analysis — told me that this weakness is not just a result of a cyclical downturn; it’s a part of a more permanent shifting of supply chains caused by trade tensions with Europe and the US.
Allowing a property-market correction, bailing out local governments, creating a new funding mechanism for them, developing a social safety net for the people through all this instability — all of it costs money.
When Japan started struggling in 1991 with a similar dynamic — aging population, sky-high debt, and slowing growth — its GDP per capita was more than triple that amount, at $41,266 in today’s dollars.
“What’s really a shame is that China never seized the opportunity on the way up to build a comprehensive social safety net where people feel they don’t have to save a lot of money for a rainy day — for healthcare, education, what have you,” Chu told me.
Earlier this month, the House select committee on China competition held a hearing in New York City, calling on witnesses to describe what risk looks like with a Chinese Communist Party that’s less committed to the free flow of capital and more concerned with flexing its muscles within its region.
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