In light of new data showing China's population shrinking for the second year running, a Shanghai-based think tank has drastically changed its 2100 forecast.
It’s not a matter of doing math well, it’s that your unknowns destroy any prediction you’re making. If you’re doing it correctly you’re adding error bars as you get further into the future. By 75 years out you’re all error.
Time series forecasting is a pretty well-established statistical method though.
It’s not a matter of doing math well, it’s that your unknowns destroy any prediction you’re making. If you’re doing it correctly you’re adding error bars as you get further into the future. By 75 years out you’re all error.