I see a lot of polls calling it for Clinton, but well within the margin of error. Interestingly and perhaps ominously, one of the biggest criticisms of Clintons 2016 run was how she practically ignored Michigan and the rest of the rust belt. She did what everyone is currently doing now and tried to browbeat voters into voting for the Democrat you know, “because its her turn”.

I’m grabbing the data for this set as well and will post a figure. I’d like to see it aligned to days out from the election to the current polling.

The polling separation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, right now, is not even close to the margin of error. Trumps going up in the polls. Biden is going down. I’ll see if I can align the two based on days out from the election.

Here is Hillary versus Trump, 2016 data:

Here is the 2024 (current polling) on top of the 2016 polling. I aligned them to days till the election. Important to keep in mind here that Trump was in a 10+ way race at the current time in polling in 2016. It was not clear what-so-ever that he would be the nominee. Biden and Trump (currently) should probably both be considered to be the de-facto nominees.

If Clinton was polling in the 30’s as the de-facto nominee, what do you think her chance of winning in 2016 would have been?

This figure says it all. Insisting that we support Biden without question is handing Trump the election.