Linux server admin, MySQL/TSQL database admin, Python programmer, Linux gaming enthusiast and a forever GM.

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Cake day: June 8th, 2023

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  • Military stuff is out of the picture since they established their trade with CCP and NK for rockets

    Not all rockets are made equally. The NK rockets, artillery barrels and artillery shells are much worse than they could manufacture with western components. A degradation in quality leading to less accuracy which lessens the battlefield impact is still a positive step.

    It also means that China can take advantage of Russia to get much more than it could usually get for their gear. China is not helping Russia out of the goodness of it’s heart or some ideological reason. They’re taking advantage.

    I wonder if sanctions targeting non-consumer products critical to producing them can lead to long pauses

    Interesting question. I have no idea. I’m pretty confident all sanctions so far are for gas, oil, and military/dual-use technology.



  • To piggyback on @Syntha@sh.itjust.works, the point of sanctions is to create an extreme economic cost to a state as a bargaining chip. Stop doing the thing we don’t like and you get your trade back. Unfortunately, states control the national currency (most of the time), which means anyone who uses that currency also gets hit. There is no way around that.

    Politically speaking, a majority of Russians have been utterly disenfranchised from politics, repeating the refrain “I’m not political” like it’s a magic spell that will ward off the consequences of their government. Consequently I’m not that sad about them experiencing a bit of economic hardship. Maybe it’ll help them realize that politics isn’t just for politicians.



  • Commentators I’ve seen blame the lack of defence on incompetent commanders that aren’t reporting losses, lack of construction equipment for preparing fallback lines and lack of communication between units. There are apparently many cases of electronic warfare units jamming Ukrainian drones because they don’t know what the drone unit is doing. In short: doesn’t sound like a problem that can be solved by just adding more bodies.

    Disclaimer: fog of war, I’m reporting on what people have said about what people have said, this may not be accurate (but what source is perfectly accurate in the middle of a war?).








  • There’s also the fact that appealing a judgement goes to more judges, always different than ones who have seen the case. Basically:

    1st judgement -> 1 judge

    1st appeal -> 2 different judges (must be unanimous)

    2nd appeal -> 3 different judges (must be unanimous)

    This makes corruption less common, as getting 6 different judges to all risk their career for a bribe is unlikely.

    I’m not going to claim this system is perfect. There are issues with the fact that there is no mechanism for preventing enforcement of an unjust law. If it’s on the books and it’s an open-shut case, the law will be applied no matter how unjust it is. The inverse is also true though: you can’t have unjust rulings that ignore laws the other direction, for example jury nullification of the murder of a black person (used to happen all the time in the US).

    Like most things, it’s a tradeoff. Some things are better, some are worse.




  • Sounds like he’s still stuck in the 90s. The police used to be corrupt as all hell, but things have slowly improved. Most would probably take a kickback for something very minor, like drinking a beer in a park, but there’s too many eyes on them for anything more major.

    Just 2 months ago a guy I know came in from Italy, but didn’t realize Romania has a zero tolerance policy on drunk driving. He had a single glass of wine and was driving. Police stopped him, asked if he’d been drinking, he said yes. Once he realized how much shit he was in, he tried to bribe them. They added that to the charges. He’s now banned from driving in Romania (he had to get a pair of friends from Italy to come pick up his car), but they were nice enough to not cancel his driving license completely.






  • I would think that Ukrainian military senior staff know a bit more of what they’re doing than us armchair generals. In terms of the full explanation, I’m sure we’ll get that much later down the line (likely after the war). In terms of the desperation, I guess a bit of that has to be involved. They wouldn’t need to do this if they were winning easily in the east, but that’s where basically all the Russian military is alongside extensive fortifications, minefields, pre-sited artillery, etc.

    It’s likely also got a political angle to it too. Undermining the myth of the strong Czar protecting his people, and forcing tough decisions about how to use conscripts, some of which are from wealthy and influential cities (unlike the contract soldiers).