Check at the state level. A few states have introduced ranked choice, your state may have someone in the mix trying to make it a thing where you live!
Check at the state level. A few states have introduced ranked choice, your state may have someone in the mix trying to make it a thing where you live!
If people vote in the primaries for candidates who support ranked choice voting, then yes.
I wish I could opt out of those messages. On streaming platforms that should be doable! (I really hate spoilers.)
Admittedly, 538 was pretty good about showing their work after. While individual events suffer from the unfalsifiability issue, 538 when Silver was around, did pretty good “how did we do for individual races/states” and compared their given odds to the actual results.
Silver made a prediction. That’s the deliverable.
I see what you’re not getting! You are confusing giving the odds with making a prediction and those are very different.
Let’s go back to the coin flips, maybe it’ll make things more clear.
I or Silver might point out there’s a 75% chance anything besides two heads in a row happening (which is accurate.) If, as will happen 1/4 times, two heads in a row does happen, does that somehow mean the odds I gave were wrong?
Same with Silver and the 2016 election.
You’re conflating things.
Your model itself can be wrong, absolutely.
But for the person above to say Silver got something wrong because a lower probability event happened is a little silly. It’d be like flipping a coin heads side up twice in a row and saying you’ve disproved statistics because heads twice in a row should only happen 1/4 times.
This is fucking silly. Yeah, in the short term this works out. But loom to other ridiculous markets like NYC which are still trying to recover from similar.
Expand housing supply, don’t fucking restrictions the few ridiculous operations trying to make said supply!
I think there’s a lot of armchair simplification going on here. Easy to call investors dumb but it’s probably a bit more complex.
AI might not get better than where it is now but if it does, it has the power to be a societally transformative tech which means there is a boatload of money to be made. (Consider early investors in Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and even the much derided Bitcoin.)
Then consider that until incredibly recently, the Turing test was the yardstick for intelligence. We now have to move that goalpost after what was preciously unthinkable happened.
And in the limited time with AI, we’ve seen scientific discoveries, terrifying advancements in war and more.
Heck, even if AI gets better at code (not unreasonable, sets of problems with defined goals/outputs etc, even if it gets parts wrong shrinking a dev team of obscenely well paid engineers to maybe a handful of supervisory roles… Well, like Wu Tang said, Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
Tl;dr: huge possibilities, even if there’s a small chance of an almost infinite payout, that’s a risk well worth taking.
Anything that makes housing affordable would also remove a significant amount of wealth from the elderly, who outvote and (I think) out donate other demographic groups.
Pretty hard thing to do politically.
I dunno, I think especially in older generations, the earnest conversation is something to be avoided at all costs. For my dad, that’s just how he was raised and I think his worst nightmare would be talking about feelings or something.
So take that and then put a hobby/passion that clearly means a lot to your folks and yeah, those can really combine in unfortunate ways.
Personally, when we’re not talking politics (my parents’ version of sports) I will sometimes throw more serious or interesting questions at mom (as said, dad hates that so I don’t push) and sometimes get interesting answers. It’s effort and mostly a one way street but I try to remember they’re not from a super healthy emotional era and even if they might at times be open to it, it does not come naturally to them (or me if I’m being honest.)
Don’t know if that early morning ramble helps but I hope it does.
Birds are super good for the environment, take a quick google!
Squirrels on the other hand, are an invasive species in much of the world.
In my home province squirrels make it pretty hard for some of our local trees etc.
Wild and well put, thanks!
Thanks for sharing, filled it out!
Thanks, I appreciate that! And yup, definitely told that a few times.
Forgot a lighter which has so far led to 2 weddings and 5 kids?
In the first week of school, a buddy and I wandered around with beer and joints to various dorms but forgot a lighter. Asking around for one, we made a new friend. Fast forward a couple years, “new friend” let me know about a home for rent opening up. I rounded up some folks (including original buddy) and we rented it. Except one guy was gone for the summer. So, a gal came from out of town to live with there. We became friends, she fell in love and ended up moving here. Between her, her best friend and sister they’ve had 5 kids with partners mostly from that original friend circle.
So, if I had remembered a lighter way back in first year, we wouldn’t have put a house of folks together, wouldn’t have met gal and her pals and thus a few weddings and kids would’ve happened differently or not at all.
Knew someone was going to rock this, thank you!
Great, so now in addition to being big enough to kick me to death they can now plan how they’re gonna get away with it.
I just have a vision of trump realizing some rally goer is in trouble and asking his rally attendees to sell him some bottled water at three times the price.
But a capitalism where workers’ wages/suffering etc were included in how people considered the price would also be lovely. (Ie, people actually get upset about sweatshop labour so the price of sweatshop goods increases yo offset that disgust) would also be lovely.
There’s a huge gap between theory/hope and reality.
To paraphrase the Beatles “they get high with a little help from their friends”