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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Compared to almost anyone.

    Canada rolled over and allowed the one sector it had any hope in–resource extraction–to be sold off to foreign investors, first from government control and then from domestic hands. Then it allowed rampant consolidation in the “captive” industries it does have (telecomm, food). Other countries did the same, but Canada rolled over faster and harder than any other western nation.

    Now we’re at the stage where our primary industry is skimming the cream off of the housing market. After that, what? Strip-mining south Asian immigrants for value? Whoops, we’re already doing that, too.

    It’s a sad tale of governments, Liberal or Conservative, selling everything not nailed down in hopes that the magical market fairy would make it better, and then steadfastly refusing to do anything at all, sacrificing current donors’ profits for everyone’s future. Everyone saw this as an issue at least as far back as 1995, but no one was willing to admit that the Reagan/Thatcher (and in our case, Mulroney and Chretien) era of neoliberalism would eventually present a bill. So it was more tax cuts, more service cuts, more selling assets, more emphasis on cash hoarding and more disincentives for investing in business.



  • I can’t catch quite the drift what x86/x64 chips are good for anymore, other than gaming, nostalgia and spec boasting.

    Probably two things:

    • Cost- and power-no-object performance, which isn’t necessarily a positive as it encourages bad behaviour.
    • The platform is much more open, courtesy of some quirks of how IBM spec’ed BIOS back before the dawn of time. Yes, you can get ARM and RISC-V licenses (openPOWER is kind of a non-entity these days) and design your own SBC, but every single ARM and RISC-V machine boots differently, while x86 and amd64 have a standard boot process.

    All those fancy “CoPilot ready” Qualcomm machines? They’re following the same path as ARM-based smartphones have, where every single machine is bespoke and you’re looking for specific boot images on whatever the equivalent of xda-developers is, or (and this is more likely) just scrapping them when they’re used up, which will probably happen a lot faster, given Qualcomm’s history with support.

    I’d love to see a replacement for x86/amd64 that isn’t a power suck, but has an open interface to BIOS.







  • Labour makes up about 15-20% of the cost of a vehicle. Curiously, that number doesn’t change all that much between jurisdictions.

    And while ~18% is as lot, materials makes up most of the rest, and those costs don’t change with jurisdiction. So the OEMs relocate to save a few percent, but mostly they relocate because the overall supply chain is more cost effective. This is why China (and now Vietnam, and Thailand, and before China, Japan and South Korea) are able to do what they do: the government and industry are willing to think long-term and make huge investments to make it happen: slapping down power plants and steel mills and making trade deals with, eg, Africa or the middle east to secure resources at scale.

    You’re falling for the modern version of blaming the working class–even in a roundabout way–for the capitalists’ failure to plan.

    Companies seek out cheaper labour, sure, but you’re taking a very simplistic view of it:

    Canada, the US and Western Europe is a big reason we farm stuff out to cheaper places (like Mexico and China) that don’t have pesky things like high safety standards or employee benefits.

    This isn’t nearly the case any more, and hasn’t been since the 1970s. They actually do have roughly similar safety standards. Replacing workers is expensive, and churn costs a lot, and you really do want to run a plant as efficiently as possible, which means not burning people out. We’re not in the triangle shirtwaist era any more.

    Workers don’t really have much of an impact on the cost or quality of the product because it’s cheaper to engineer your plant such that they don’t. Mistakes are expensive. Waste is expensive. Re-work is expensive.

    If you had said environmental standards, yes, you’d be right. Those can be more lax. That’s something different, and also not nearly the gap it used to be.

    the fact the huge disparity in labour costs between the two countries is reason the TFW program even works

    Slinging donuts at Tim Hortons, answering support calls and/or writing shitty front-end web code is a different thing entirely, and yes the TFW program is a problem, but that’s not the issue with heavy industry.


  • In the 1980s, faced with a crisis of their own making, Harley went crying to Ronald Reagan for tariffs on imported bikes. Reagan, free-market champion that he was, obliged.

    This resulted in

    • Harley getting a handicap, allowing them to keep doing what they were doing, selling uncompetitive and overpriced bikes and just prolonging the inevitable.
    • Because Harley didn’t have to try nor evolve, and because their bikes were overpriced and uncompetitive, their international sales, which were never great, dried up.
    • Honda et al, because they were at a cost disadvantage, had to make a better product for the same money, which they did. Basically every standard and cruiser product Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki and especially Honda made rubbed Harley’s nose in it, notably the Gold Wing.
    • Because Harley didn’t have to try, while the JDM makes had to try extra hard and everything cost more, the motorcycle market as a whole collapsed
    • Again, because Harleys were not competitive but were anachronistic and could get away with it because of Mama Reagan, what few bikes did sell to new riders weren’t Harleys, and Harley didn’t bother to try new things, missing out on the adventure-bike boom and losing at least two generations of street-bike riders.

    Basically, it set Harley up for failure and nutured mediocrity.

    Tariffs, if they don’t come with government pressure on the industry being protected, are basically corporate welfare that helps in the short term but results in long-term pain.

    EVs will be similar. Protecting the North American industry in the short term isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it would require the American and Canadian government to bust the balls of Ford, GM and Stellantis, as well as the domestic-produced imports: you get the tariffs and you get tax breaks, but in turn you have three years to produce a cheap, capable EV or, eg, we’ll make it happen without you.

    Our governments won’t do this because they’re neoliberal chickenshits who lost their spine forty years ago.

    The result will be EVs that are too expensive, sold to the most profitable niche domestically, with collapsing sales abroad. Which is what we have now, and it will get worse if we insulate lazy OEMs from market pressure.

    China’s hands are not clean, but one thing they have done is invest in the long term. The North American OEMs resolutely refuse to do that, and tariffs would make that situation worse.




  • The first two (labour and quality control) aren’t really what affect the MSRP. Labour makes a difference, but it’ materials cost that really drives price, and QA isn’t really the differentiator you might think.

    But that last one–government support–that makes a massive difference. China has been, and continues to be, very strategic throughout the entire supply chain, from security raw materials at low cost, to building transport and energy infrastructure, to setting up hub-and-spoke centres for OEMs and suppliers, to securing a labour force. Non-Chinese OEMs, and especially Americans that depend on tax rebates little else, can’t compete.

    It wouldn’t hurt the American and Canadian governments to twist the arm of industry and get them to think a little more long-term. They won’t, of course, because of neoliberal capture, but they could.




  • It is, though. Studies in disinformation have proven this. This is why right-wing bullshitters are so eager to engage in debate: just getting the chance to show up and be refuted in a legitmate setting, like a major newspaper, gives them an audience for the ideas and credibility, that their position is one worthy of refute.

    This is how we got the alt-right in 2015: by taking neo-Nazis seriously.

    This is what the media doesn’t understand, and why fact-checkers are getting–correctly–rolled on social media. Every time you bring up one of these lies, even to fact check it–especially to fact-check it–you give it credibility.

    This is why the Harris/Walz campaign’s tactic of ridicule is working so well. Instead of saying “No, you’re wrong about XXX because YYYY and ZZZZ”, they’re saying “What is wrong with you? You’re weird.” The latter doesn’t give the lie any oxygen.