As an American, I’d like to dump America if Trump becomes president again.
We don’t even need to do anything, he’ll do all the work for us when he gets reelected…
Well based on their comment of as an American, they’ll have to have dark skin or something and then Trump’s “great america” will take it’s toll
Eventually. Their current boogyman is trans people followed by LGBTQ+ in general. They’ll get around to non-white and non-christian people eventually though.
40% of Australia has their head on.
While I agree, this survey is based on less than 1% of the population. The article does not clearly cite its sources. ‘Based on 1019 responses’ from who? Sydneysiders? People from the NT?
This uncited survey from a for profit company, with major shareholders being venture capitalists, asset managers, shitbags, etc. with a history of possible poll manipulation means nothing.
I expect better from the Guardian
this survey is based on less than 1% of the population.
Yes, that’s how polls work.
And surprise surprise they have the predictive value of about chance.
You really need to look into the concept of statistical sampling. It’s how just about all science works, and I can assure you science works.
While I don’t disagree, polling is the absolute worst example of scientific analysis. There are so many easy ways they can be swayed…leading questions, framing questions, selection bias, etc. And that gets used to form manipulative articles based on intentionally misreresentative facts.
Polls really need to be taken with context and a grain of salt.
Those are valid critiques.
And you really shouldn’t be having this conversation with a former testing engineer.
You can’t compare these garbage polls with what goes on in the science+engineering landscape. The main difference is if we are wrong there are consequences for being wrong.
OK, so something with no citations or methodology is gospel, got it…
OK, so something with no citations or methodology is gospel, got it…
I didn’t say that, now did I? I simply pointed out that criticizing a survey for being based on “less than 1% of the population” is fucking stupid because that’s just how polling works. Got it? Good. We’re done here.
The article does not clearly cite its sources. ‘Based on 1019 responses’ from who? Sydneysiders? People from the NT?
This uncited survey from a for profit company, with major shareholders being venture capitalists, asset managers, shitbags, etc. with a history of possible poll manipulation means nothing.
Was that edited in after the fact? Why are people dogpiling based on that first sentence and ignoring the rest?
No it was not edited after.
My point of contention was not just less than 1%, it was no citations as well. You just used that part.
If I ask 1000 ac/dc fans what the best music genre is they probably are not going to say soft rock.
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The irony of course is that the gospels were made up completely. Except for the part in Luke and John where they admit to coping from other writers.
While I agree, this survey is based on less than 1% of the population.
The fact that the survey is uncited is a problem, but polling is a science, and you only need a relatively small amount, with proper weighting, to get reliable results.
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Meant to edit, accidentally deleted.
Is it weighted? How? Who was polled? All Melburnians or people whose favorite joke is ‘Show us your map of Tazzie’? With no sources or methodology it means nothing. The moon is made of cheese.
I agree with what you’re saying for the most part, but for a population the size of Australia with 1000 respondents, a 99% confidence level has a margin of error of 4% which is perfectly acceptable. Unless the survey targeted very specific demographics versus a random sample, it should be very accurate.
That was my point though, we have no idea who was surveyed.
Agreed. YouGov is garbage. They are owned by christian nationalists of the Tory variety. There is nothing governmental about them, and they meddle in public opinion of foreign countries. Their polls rarely show the source information. I’ve seen them post absurd things, like quietly polling a catholic church and being like, “98% of Americans oppose abortion”. I don’t know who exactly they polled, cause they won’t tell us most of the time.
How high are you right meow?
No they don’t, they’re idiots. Severing a valuable longstanding alliance because you don’t like their current leader, who will be in power for at most, another 4 years is an incredibly short-sighted decision.
Cut off the nose to spite the face energy.
who will be in power for at most, another 4 years
Trump already attempted one coup to remain in power. You’d have to be a moron to think he’d willingly step down after a second term. Particularly since he’s on the record saying that he wants to be president for life - multiple times.
I mean, I’m sure he’ll have a massive coronary or stroke before he finishes his second term, if he even lives past his felony trials.
if he becomes president the trials wil almost certainly stop
Just like how Kim Il Sung died, and suddenly North Korea was free!
But, they can start supporting again after 4 years. Seems pretty short sighted to not think about 5 years +.
I mean, what would “dumping our alliance” even look like? Cut off trade? Deny travel? I get the sentiment but this is just stupid, not to mention Australia’s own right wing woes.
They could stop military cooperation, they could severely limit trade, they could begin to require Americans to have visas for entry.
Don’t forget this is a poll not a diplomatic statement from the Aussie gov. If it was they would have outlined what would be expected.
Though one would expect Australia to be a little more tactful when it come to foreign policy announcements or opinions on an ally’s head of state or elections for the position.
Remove as a friend on faceboot
You all need to remove your sense of morality from foreign policy calculations made by any government. It’s about power, always about power. You may personally view one nation’s values as better and therefore their ideas of power more moral, but still, it’s about power.
For Australia specifically, they are reliant on the US Naval power projection for their conception of Australian national security, which is why even their new Labor government is still moving ahead with AUKUS. It why Australia has always sent their troops to fight in America’s wars (post-WW2), rightly or wrongly.
Even after Vietnam was so bad for Australia that they revamped their entire military to become a “defensive” force and not an explicitly expeditionary one, they still fought in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Those were all chips put into the American security pot, that they’re hoping to be able to call in when they need it.
Those reasons, and more, are why I’m confident that even with Trump, it would take something so drastic and catastrophic to change their calculations, that I don’t want to even try and imagine what that would be. Even if I’m sure Trump could manage to cause whatever catalyst that would be necessary. Still, it wouldn’t just be his reelection. It would be something so much worse.
So how long will people continue to think like that and by result let everything fall apart?
Without morality, life is meaningless.
I’m not saying that is how things should be, I’m talking about how they actually are.
That doesn’t mean I endorse, or support, the status quo. Just that I recognize what it is, and the implications that has on international relations.
I am aware. I mean to say that we need to stop just accepting things as they are and start changing them.
Can’t blame them. God forbid it happens.
The USA get one “we did something unthinkably stupid” free pass.
No way would they ever reelect that literal fascist after he all but tried to dismantle their institutions and install himself as a democratic dictator.
They’re not that stupid, and if they are? We should all cut ties, don’t want to be dragged down with the ship. But it won’t come to that.
I know at least one person who, after saying they don’t like Trump and agree that he has done several illegal things, said that they would rather have Trump as president than Biden again.
It’s certainly not impossible that he gets elected again.
We are that stupid.
We really are. It’s still bad here
The USA get one “we did something unthinkably stupid” free pass.
They used up all those passes during the Bush administration.
Remember when we thought Bush was the low point in American history, and it couldn’t get more absurd than “Freedom Fries”? Good times.
Don’t diminish what a shit bag Bush was.
At least Trump didn’t invade a country and kill tens of thousands of people under false pretenses.
yet.
Believe it or not…and what you and others can’t appear to accept… That orange man is in the past.
“Trump can’t possibly get elected”
I think I’ve heard this one before…
they used up all those passes when they had to go to war over whether slavery is bad and should be banned
Wait until you hear what country started slavery in America.
…
Well, it’s technically Spain, but you know.
No way would they ever reelect
They’re not that stupid
I’m getting these vibes from this comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw
Which terrifies me.
We should all cut ties, don’t want to be dragged down with the ship
Cutting ties with the most powerful country in the world? Not going to happen.
Honestly, how can anyone say he won’t be elected again? Have we learned nothing?
Well for one thing he’s not running against Hillary Clinton this time.
A good point but I still won’t rule out anything
Yeah, don’t get complacent, but don’t listen to the sky-is-falling doomsayers that spam every political thread either. The Republicans have been doing poorly in every election since 2018, and between the chaos in the House and the law finally catching up with Trump things aren’t looking good for them in 2024.
Here is an alternative Piped link(s):
https://www.piped.video/watch?v=Z6Oczyk6nCw
Piped is a privacy-respecting open-source alternative frontend to YouTube.
I’m open-source; check me out at GitHub.
Almost 40% think Australia should dump US alliance if Donald Trump returns as president, poll finds
And I wouldn’t hold it against them if they did. If we’re dumb enough to re-elect a fascist that already attempted one coup to remain in power then we should be dropped by all our allies. We would be a security risk at that point.
America’s institutions are resilient, especially the military and security state components, even if the latter often vacillate between amoral and immoral.
They’re vulnerable, and under heavy strain, but they aren’t so brittle that one man can destroy them singlehandedly.
My point isn’t that we have nothing to fear from another Trump presidency, it’s that for most of America’s security partners, they don’t really have any other good alternatives at the moment. So for better, or worse, they’ll stick around for as long as it’s necessary for them, because America’s ability to project power transcends the oval office.
If anyone could change their calculations, it’s Trump, but it would because of a situation he caused, or escalated, not just his reelection.
A standard GOP play is on display here, readers: the classic “Oh it’s not that bad, nothing will really change, if you don’t vote it’ll be just fine.”
Things have already changed. Our institutions are not just under strain, in some ways they’ve already fallen. Our supreme Court is thoroughly compromised. The house is under control by a vocal, crazy minority that just managed to wrest control of speaker of the house who is third in line to the president.
We came incredibly close to a coup stealing an entire branch of the US government, and the second and third are already under minority zealot control.
Vote. The US government is not so resilient that you can just ignore it. In fact, that is directly the plan and goal of the minority party trying to steal permanent control of the government- to trick you into apathy, that it doesn’t matter who is in charge because nothing will change
Their past actions prove otherwise. Don’t allow yourself to be mislead. Vote. And don’t ignore people like the person above me trying to siren call others into a position of comfortable apathy. Call them out on their bullshit. Be polite, it may be inadvertant- perhaps they’ve not been affected. Or maybe they’re trying to talk about something else and are simply accidentally implying that things will just end up fine, like the poster above me. But in the end, regardless of the motivations, it is bullshit all the same. History is littered with the ghosts of once grand countries, and nobody thought they would fall either.
That’s not what I said, at all.
Also, lol.
Why don’t you read through my comment history and tell me again how I’m regurgitating standard GOP drivel.
It’s not what you said, it’s what you implied with what you said.
And yes, you do not lean GOP. But the entire point of that apathy is specifically to target non-GOP voters to keep them from voting- so it would be entirely expected to see that sort of accidental encouragement of apathy from a non-GOP poster, and all the more important to call it out because unlike someone who votes R, you would see the importance of shaking off that false apathy and voting.
“what you implied”
Maybe you should take a breather, and then come back and reread my comments in this thread.
You’re projecting your own meaning or intonations into my words because you’ve cast a moral judgement on who I am, or what my intent is. Not only were you wrong, but you keep inserting your morality into questions of foreign policy, just like I warned about in my main comment.
In some threads, I’ll absolutely insert my political views and opinions, in this thread I have stuck to neutral analysis, mostly on the realities of geopolitics and foreign policy.
More than once I have even said that Trump was a unique threat who could create the conditions that everyone here is chirping about. However, I also made clear that the act of his reelection alone would not be enough for countries like Australia to end their alliance with America.
Now, because I think you mean well, I won’t spend the time pointing out the numerous logical fallacies you’ve used to attack me.
So, if you disagree with anything I’ve actually said, please share. But please leave out your projections of what you think my secret nefarious intentions really are, or attacks based around logical fallacies.
I think you may also want to consider a breather. I’m not attacking you, I’m not accusing you of nefarious intentions, and I’m not casting judgements.
I’m pointing out that, regardless of if you’re advocating it or not, you are inadvertently supporting the idea that voter apathy is acceptable. You’re not doing it outright, and that’s not what you’re trying to do, I get that. You’re trying to neutrally state that regardless of what happens, it takes more than one presidential change to cause geopolitical changes on the scale Australia is threatening.
Now, I actually disagree with that point that in general, I feel we’ve seen our allies distance themselves or even break off with us in Trump’s first (and hopefully only) presidency, but that’s not actually what we’re discussing here anyway and I don’t think either of us really care to dig into the weeds there, because it involves a scenario I think both of us hope won’t happen.
My point is more that, as someone who cannot read minds, I can’t tell if that language is coming in as a complete coincidental accident, it’s something you accidentally picked up from GOP propaganda pointed directly at your demographic (which is most likely imo), or you’re intentionally spreading it (highly unlikely, given your post history). But regardless of what you’re intending to say, what you’re actually saying gives a feeling of ‘calm down, it’s not a big deal, trump winning isn’t a huge catastrophe to democracy, it’ll be fine, any damage he can cause will be limited.’
And that happens to directly be a piece of GOP propaganda to encourage non-GOP voters not to vote, because voter suppression and low voter turnout helps the GOP.
Again, I’m not saying you’re doing it intentionally, or even registering it. I’m not saying it’s some nefarious plan, and I’m not blaming you. I’m pointing out that there is unconscious bias in what you’re saying. Admittedly I was first trying to point out that bias to anyone reading, which probably looked combative to you, so my bad for that.
Almost 40% of most democratic country’s populations would probably agree with most dumb and provocative ideas presented in a poll… especially now days with how partisan everything has become.
That said the Australia/ USA alliance is more important than any particular administration or head of government either our Australian government or the US government.
It’s an alliance of enormous mutual benefit that frankly is not going anywhere.
Australia is an enormous unsinkable aircraft carrier rich in resources, far enough from potential adversaries in the region to provide extremely strong defence in depth in the region. We use common platforms and tactics in battle, and have extensive integrated combat experience.
Perhaps even more important than any of that, it would be politically unacceptable I believe to our populations to turn our back on each other at this point, so many of us have personal friends and family in each other’s country.
We might occasionally have disagreements like any family does, and we might not like everything about each other but that’s how it goes with family. Any other country trying some shit I feel will find out fast that our alliance is stronger than it has ever been.
The US, UK and Australia have a bond forged in the fire of conflict and quenched in blood, anyone who wants to try and fuck with one should probably be ready for a fight with all… not to be overly dramatic.
I appreciate this dude’s pride
only 40% seems disturbingly low.
In other news only 40.01% of Australians care about US politics.
lolz
I mean, understandable but still a terrible idea. More than ever Australia, Europe, the US need each other.
For what?
I mean we can just hand over the keys to the BRICS, maybe they’ll do a better job than we did.
BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
Of those, only Brazil and South Africa are not currently engaged in ethnic cleansing.
Is that really what we want to gamble on?
No that was kind of my point :)
Oh, sorry, lol.
BRIC(S) is a Goldman-Sachs white paper, turned PR initiative.
It’s not common market, much less anything resembling a security architecture.
Don’t get me wrong, I think a Global South alliance or economic union/federation would be an amazing advancement for EVERY worker in the world, not just those outside the first world.
Unfortunately, BRICS isn’t that, and can never be that. But maybe, if we’re lucky, it can be the League of Nations style doomed prototype for a more successful and effective organization to be born out of its ashes. Though, ideally without requiring another world war.
China, or rather, the Pacific.
40% of Australia? I wasnt asked? (But I agree)
I bet some large amounts of money against his win the last time he was on, because I thought that if he gets a second term, everything gonna be completely fucked anyway so it won’t matter if I lose a few monies. That worked out fine.
I’m scared to do it the same way this time for some reason.
you have my permission to get together with the Japs and ze Germans and invade… if the Brits can get their shit together, they’re welcome to join in…
Nothing would solidify a sitting president’s hold on power more than an invasion. Do you want a third term of Trump? Because that’s the only way that could happen
Surprised it’s not 60% honestly.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
A significant minority of Australians think the country should withdraw from the overall Anzus security alliance with the US if Donald Trump returns to the White House, while just under half of the respondents in a new poll believe the Aukus pact locks Australia in to supporting the US in any armed conflict.
But after the steady thaw in diplomatic relations between Canberra and Beijing over the past 12 months, and the release of Australia’s defence strategic review in April, 49% say that now.
A majority of Australian respondents (63%) believe China will become the most economically and militarily influential country in Asia over the coming couple of decades (32% say the US will be the pre-eminent power).
The new poll findings follow Anthony Albanese’s return from an official visit to Washington and ahead of the prime minister’s trip to Shanghai and Beijing at the end of this week.
Seven months after Albanese joined Biden and the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, in San Diego to announce the Aukus plans, there remains uncertainty over congressional approvals needed for them to succeed.
Asked on Tuesday whether or not he was walking a diplomatic tightrope between the strategic competitors – Washington and Beijing – the prime minister said Australians wanted him “to be direct about our interests”.
The original article contains 792 words, the summary contains 215 words. Saved 73%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
This is probably as good a place and time as any to reflect on how everything went as terribly wrong as it had to get in order for clowns like Trump to not be laughed out of politics.
Politics had to fall very far, very hard, to get to the point where enough people felt like voting at all was a waste of time- and probably the biggest single factor I can point out is when the Neoliberals took over the Democrats, American Labor lost its only champion, Antitrust law lost its only advocate, and both major parties in the USA essentially became handmaidens to corporate power. While this was happening, the GOP, long since a dark-money puppet organization, abandoned any pretense of doing anything in the public interest and became a full-throated howl of corruption and voter suppression and gerrymandering.
When both major parties in a duopoly system take turns tag-teaming the working class for their donors’ profit margins, you can expect that working class to radicalize, leftwards and rightwards, it’s what happens every time when a working class realizes it’s being objectively fucked. There was a reason Weimar Germany was so full of left-socialists and right-fascists, the middle had thoroughly failed and it turns out that when given the choice, status-quo-liberals will always choose fascism over socialism.
