| Party | Seats | Change | Percentage | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 190 | +37 | 44.2% | 88.1% | 11.6% |
| Conservative | 120 | -1 | 38.5% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Bloc | 26 | -7 | 6.2% | N/A | N/A |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Green | 1 | -1 | 1.5% | N/A | N/A |
| People’s | 0 | N/A | 2.5% | N/A | N/A |
Source: https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/dashboard/canada#voter-intention
Why the sudden change in the last day? Have the disinformation campaigns already infected voter’s minds?
Polls tend to revert to the mean. This isn’t surprising, a contraction for the Liberals was always inevitable at some point. With the lead they’ve built up their odds look good to excellent, but it’s definitely important to understand that by election day it’s going to be much more up in the air than it is now.
As always, nothing matters if people don’t get out and vote.
This 100%. Polls aren’t elections. Vote when it matters!
People start paying attention when an election is called. Polls before that often aren’t representative of their opinions. With that said, I think the current political context, with Trump, the LPC leadership election, the PM change, people have been paying more attention than usual so I think we won’t see large swings. But some are definitely plugging in now. The undecided number is just 6% today. In mid-February it was 11%.
So yeah some number of people have begun absorbing the (mis) informational firehose.
Different day, different sample. I wouldn’t read too much into it unless it becomes a trend.
Carney declined to do a common/popular debate in Quebec.
And I’ve already seen regressive media spinning it as “Carney too chicken to participate in debates,” leaving out any context like this one being in addition to the main ones and being a pay-to-play event.
I mean, I’m probably voting Liberal (the NDP have had a strong showing in my riding in the past, so I’m not entirely decided), but I kind of believe this.
Carney is obviously the least comfortable out of the main candidates in speaking in French. I don’t believe the cost is a real factor. Maybe “afraid” isn’t the right word, but it does seem to be strategic in a way that avoids potential negative exposure for him. I have mixed feelings about it.
It doesn’t look that different to me, really.
I kinda hate they don’t put error bars on the chart, it’s statistical noise that’s likely all within the MoE.
Like in statistical process stuff, you can’t say there’s a trend from a singular data point, western electric rules for example, if you saw multiple consecutive data points and/or large swings maybe you could conclude a trend, but as it stands yeah nah no change.
My guess is the “moderating” force of an official election season kickoff bringing a few more apolitical folk into the conversation. It’s probably too early to read anything into it.